Despite the current unrest amid a rash of resignations in the U.S. House, Republicans are positioned to retain the majority in the 2024 elections.
Nathan Gonzalez in Roll Call reported, “Even though Republicans are seeing their current House majority shrink with each passing resignation, the GOP is better positioned to maintain control of the House a little more than seven months before Election Day.”
“Currently, the math is easier for Republicans if they win the races they are currently favored to win. The 187 races rated as Solid Republican by Inside Elections, added to the 29 races rated as Likely, Lean, or Tilt Republican gets the GOP to 216 seats. That means Republicans need to win just two of the 10 Toss-up races to get to 218.”
Gonzalez further describes, “The math is more difficult for Democrats. Adding the 174 races rated as Solid Democratic to the 35 races rated as Likely, Lean, or Tilt Democratic by Inside Elections gets the Democrats to 209 seats. That means Democrats need to win nine of 10 Toss-up races to get to 218.”
In an interview with Punchbowl News, Congressman Richard Hudson, chair of the National Republican Congressional Committee (NRCC), vowed that “not only will Republicans keep the House, they’ll expand their majority.”
Congressman Hudson identified several seats currently held by Democrats that will be open in 2024. In Michigan, Congressman Dan Kildee is not seeking re-election in the 8th District and Congresswoman Elissa Slotkin is leaving her seat in the 7th District to run for Senate. Both are considered Tossups by the Cook Political Report.
Hudson pointed to opportunities in California’s 47th District, where incumbent Congresswoman Katie Porter left her seat for an ill-fated run for Senate, and Virginia’s 7th District, where incumbent Congressman Abigail Spanberger opted not to run for re-election as she prepares a bid for governor in 2025. He also identified freshman Congresswoman Val Hoyle in Oregon’s 4th District as a “vulnerable Democrat flying under the radar.”
There are five Democratic incumbents running for re-election in districts that President Trump carried in the 2020 election. These include Representatives Mary Peltola in Alaska, Jared Golden in Maine, Marcy Kaptur in Ohio, Matt Cartwright in Pennsylvania, and Marie Gluesenkamp-Perez in Washington.
In addition, the Cook Political Report rates the races of the following Democratic incumbents as tossups: Yadira Caraveo in Colorado, Gabe Vazquez in New Mexico, Don Davis in North Carolina, Emilia Sykes in Ohio, and Susan Wild in Pennsylvania.
Despite Democratic wins in redistricting challenges to Congressional maps in states like Alabama and Louisiana, Republicans dodged what could have been a devastating gerrymander in New York. In North Carolina, Republicans were able to craft a map that enables the party to pick as many as four seats in 2024.
In an article for Politico entitled, “The fight to flip the House just got harder for Dems. And they have New York to blame,” author Zach Montellaro argued, “The GOP came out ahead thanks to the redistricting aggression of North Carolina Republicans — and the timidity of New York Democrats.”
“It is a marginally more favorable map in ‘24 than we even had in ‘22,” Adam Kincaid, the executive director of the National Republican Redistricting Trust, the top group that coordinates the party’s redistricting efforts, told Politico. “It turned out pretty well.”
As in past election cycles, National Right to Life is working with pro-life candidates on messaging and ways to effectively rebut pro-abortion attacks and misinformation. National Right to Life has encouraged pro-life candidates to be proactive in addressing abortion on the campaign trail. When pro-life candidates try to run and hide from the issue, they allow their pro-abortion opponents to set the narrative and define them on the issue.
With very few exceptions, Democratic Congressional candidates (along with Joe Biden and Kamala Harris at the top of ticket) are campaigning on a pro-abortion agenda that would allow unlimited abortions for any reason until birth and the use of tax dollars to pay for them.
Most Democratic Congressional candidates support eliminating existing state-level protections like those that require parents be notified before an abortion is performed on their minor daughter. Most Democratic Congressional candidates are even opposed to legislation to ensure babies born alive during abortion attempts are afforded the same degree of medical care as any other newborn of the same gestational age.
Those are truly extreme positions. Pro-life candidates should not be afraid to call out their pro-abortion opponents for their out of touch views.
Polling shows that the American electorate continues to back protections for unborn children and their mothers. As long as there are exceptions for the rare cases when the life of the mother is endangered and in cases of rape, incest, or medical emergency, 72% of Americans support greater protections for unborn children and their mothers, according to polling conducted by McLaughlin and Associates following the 2022 midterm elections.
This was echoed by Marist polling in January 2024.
“Most Americans are steadfast in their belief that abortion should be significantly limited yet laws should include exceptions for rape, incest, or to save the life of the mother,” says Dr. Barbara L. Carvalho, Director of the Marist Poll. “This clear trend found in the annual Knights of Columbus-Marist Poll has continued, nearly two years after the Supreme Court’s landmark Dobbs decision.”
According to the Marist polling, a majority continues to oppose the use of their tax dollars to pay for abortions. It also found that an overwhelming 86% of Americans support the work of pregnancy help centers.
Despite the aggressive campaigning we are seeing by Democrats on abortion, the issue does not have to be a loser for pro-life Republicans at the ballot box. The American electorate generally holds views closer to the pro-life position than the abortion-without-limits position of the Democratic Party. In 2024, we have real opportunities to hold onto (and expand) the pro-life majority in the House, retake the Senate, and win the Presidency, but pro-life candidates cannot wave the white flag of surrender on abortion now.